October 3020 Wiltshire Legislative Elections

NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH October 3020 Wiltshire Local Elections

Previous election: June 3020

October 3020 Wiltshire Legislative Elections
Date	30 October 3020
All 90 seats of the Wiltshire National Assembly 46 seats needed for a majority
Incumbent Prime Minister	Sonya Inyo Liberal Conservative

The October 3020 Wiltshire Legislative Elections will be held on 30 October 3020 to elect the 24th Wiltshire National Assembly, having been called by Prime Minister Sonya Inyo following her appointment as Prime Minister after former PM Mark Edwin was dismissed during the WEA/EFR electoral scandal.

The election will be the third poll to be conducted under MMP (Mixed-Member Proportional) and will be the third conducted since independence from the New Corporate Republic. The election will have the shortest campaign period of any election in Wiltshirian history, with only four weeks to campaign for parties. However, most parties have been campaigning already due to the October 3020 Wiltshire Local Elections.

Background

The result of the last general election and the current situation in the National Assembly is given below:

Political Party	Leader	Elected Members	Current Members
Socialist Party	Scott House	17	15
Labour Party	Mark Edwin	15	15
Liberal Conservative Party	Sonya Inyo	21	19
KRV (Corporate Party)	Arlen Nordstrom	4	4
Stability Party	Mitchell A. Crawley	0	4
United Wiltshire	James Brown	0	1
Christian Alliance Party	Helmut Adenauer	0	1
Independent	N/A	0	1
Total		60

Government formation

Following the last general election, the second largest party and the third largest party (the Socialist Party and the Labour Party) formed a coalition government under Prime Minister Mark Edwin. The coalition government prevented the largest party, the Liberal Conservatives, from forming a government.

Leadership elections

As a result of the last election, Prime Minister Audrick Hill resigned as Leader of the Liberal Conservatives. To succeed him, Sonya Inyo was elected to become the new Leader and take up the position of Leader of the Opposition. In addition, one particular candidate for the LibCon leadership, former Chancellor of the Exchequer James Brown, announced that he would form his own political party, United Wiltshire, to contest elections as a "real conservative party".

In addition, Tony Beck resigned as Socialist Leader. The subsequent leadership election saw the International Trade Minister, Scott House, elected the new Leader of the Socialist Party and Deputy Prime Minister of Wiltshire.

Vote of no confidence

In July 3020, the government introduced legislation that would protect the rights of EFR refugees and provide them with a "quick, easy and cheap" pathway to citizenship. The bill was defeated, causing major issues for Edwin's government. The next day, Sonya Inyo's opposition tabled a motion of no confidence. Following the longest continuous debate in Wiltshirian history, the government survived the attempt.

However, due to this, most suspect that an early election will be called as the government's ability to govern continues to diminish.

WEA/EFR electoral scandal

In August 3020, the government of the Eastern Federal Republic requested the assistance of the Wiltshire Elections Authority (WEA) in holding their August 3020 Parliamentary General Election. Assistance ranged from the opening, running, and maintenance of voting centers to the counting of votes. Following the election, far-right media started circulating stories that the government of Wiltshire had interfered with the electoral process in order to rig the election in favour of the left-wing incumbent coalition of Prime Minister Wim Kleiboer.

While the rumors were initially backed by little evidence, the story was eventually picked up by Wiltshirian politicians from the opposition Liberal Conservative Party (LibCons). Eventually, with the LibCons promoting the story, far more people started to investigate the claims. Eventually, a committee for democratic honesty from within the BlackCon Labs Corporation released a report stating interference was "likely" and that further investigation was required. This report led to the resignation of cabinet ministers Hans-Otto Laine and Adelin Bahn.

The LibCon opposition continued to demand investigation, meanwhile the government of the EFR started to call for an international investigation. While Edwin refused to submit to an international investigation, due to the lack of international obligation to do so, Edwin directed the Attorney General of Wiltshire, Gordon Howling, to name a Special Prosecutor to investigate the claims from within the government. Howling appointed the Solicitor-General, Fleur Johannsson, who published her report.

Johannsson's report was unable to make a conclusion, which further energized critics of the government. Eventually, international pressure on Wiltshire to submit to a "full and proper" international investigation amounted from allies in the DUOD and the International Defense Organization. Eventually, Edwin agreed and the government of Wiltshire will appear in front of an international tribunal to make a final conclusion on the allegations on Sunday 27 September 3020.

Following the guilty verdict of the tribunal, President Gaius Selan dismissed Mark Edwin as Prime Minister, instead appointing opposition Leader Sonya Inyo.

Electoral system

Since the Third Elections Act, 3020, Wiltshire uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the National Assembly. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the Assembly in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 50 of the 90 seats are filled by the AMs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 40 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the Assembly will add extra seats to cover the overhang.

In order to appear on the national ballot, a political party needs to meet any two of the following criteria;

• Reach 10,000 signatures on a ballot petition
• Reach 3,000 individual donors
• Currently hold seats in the National Assembly

Currently, no parties have reached this threshold as no nomination petitions have been sent out. This usually occurs in the two months before the election. Before the last election, the first political party wasn't nominated until 6 weeks before polling day.

In electorates, individual candidates require a nomination petition of 500 signatures to appear on the electorate ballot.

Boundaries

The electorate boundaries required for the general election have not been set. Districting, according to the Third Elections Act, 3020, has been given to the Wiltshire Election Authority. On 20 August 3020, the WEA released the following electorate boundary map.

Date of the election

The Second Elections Act, 3020 sets out the last possible date for a general election to be held:

"The responsibility to dissolve the National Assembly, while in the hands of the President, must take place, at the latest, on the third Friday of the sixth month following the first sitting of the current National Assembly."

This means that the last possible date for the general election is Friday 18 December, 3020. This would be the first ever December election in Wiltshirian history. However, in the event of a no confidence vote in the Assembly, or other situations in which the government deems necessary for an early dissolution, the election could take place earlier than this.

Speculation

There is speculation that the government will call for the election to take place earlier than 18 December 3020 due to that date's proximity to Christmas Day. This has also been linked to the date of the 3021 Wiltshire Presidential Election, which will take place in January 3021. Some speculate that the government will seek to amend the law to allow for the election to take place one month later, to coincide with the Presidential Election. Progress AM Sid Velum stated "it wouldn't be reasonable to ask Wiltshirians to vote twice in two months".

The government has not commented on the speculation. However, in mid-August, the government announced that it would delay its housing agenda (a key promise of the Labour Party in every general election since its foundation) until after the next election, suggesting that there will likely be an early poll.

Opinion polling

The following opinion polls have been conducted since the June 3020 Wiltshire Elections.

Date	Labour	Liberal Conservative	Socialist	United Wiltshire	KRV	Progress	Other	Lead
8/8/3020	36.4%	33.1%	8.9%	11.3%	7.2%	0.7%	2.4%	3.3%
2/8/3020	34.9%	32.5%	9.0%	13.2%	6.9%	1.0%	2.5%	2.4%
30/7/3020	31.3%	34.5%	5.0%	15.3%	4.9%	0.4%	8.6%	3.2%
25/7/3020	38.2%	32.1%	8.4%	12.7%	6.4%	0.7%	1.5%	6.1%
19/7/3020	40.0%	30.1%	8.5%	10.4%	8.3%	0.7%	2.0%	9.9%
14/7/3020	38.7%	31.5%	8.0%	9.3%	7.9%	0.5%	4.1%	7.2%
10/7/3020	38.3%	33.1%	9.1%	9.0%	8.9%	1.0%	0.6%	5.2%
3/6/3020	35.4%	36.1%	13.2%	0	7.1%	2.6%	5.6%	0.7%
19/6/3020	25.1%	34.8%	28.1%	0	5.9%	4.0%	0	6.7%