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3026 Wiltshire general election: Difference between revisions

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The '''3026 Wiltshire general election''' is scheduled to be held Monday 12 January 3026 to elect the 2nd National Assembly of the [[Wiltshire|Wiltshirian Commonwealth]]. Incumbent republican prime minister [[Audrick Hill]] is seeking a full term, having succeeded Beau Martin in January 3026, on a platform of independence from the Murcian Imperium. In December 3025, a realignment of the major parties took pace, with the Republic party, the Commonwealth party, and the Covalence party becoming the three major parties of Wiltshirian politics. The election was called by Holy Roman Emperor [[Maximilian Augustus]] after the passage of the secular rights bill into law.
[[File:Jan26infobox.png|right|frameless|877x877px]]
{| class="wikitable"
A general election was held in the Wiltshirian Commonwealth on 12 January 3026, to elect 53 members to the [[Wiltshire National Assembly]]. This was the first and only Wiltshirian election ever to be held by imperial decree. The governing [[Republic Party of Wiltshire|Republic party]] led by [[Prime Minister of Wiltshire|prime minister]] [[Audrick Hill]] remained the largest single party in the National Assembly. However, despite dominating opinion polls leading up to the election, republicans failed to secure an overall majority. The election resulted in the formation of a [[Rivers ministry|Labour minority government]], with a precarious standing in the legislature.
|+Next Wiltshire general election
 
!Party
The Republic party was formed in the preceding month as a formal merger of the Conservative and Liberal parties, which had formed a [[Fourth Hill Ministry|coalition government]] after the resignation of [[Second Martin Ministry (Wiltshire)|prime minister Beau Martin]]. They were led by Audrick Hill, Martin's successor as prime minister. It was defending its position as the largest single party in the legislature against the opposition Commonwealth party, which itself split before the election with the Labour party breaking away, led by [[Patrick Rivers]].
!Leader
 
!Current seats
Under the Act of Settlement, an election had not been due until May 3026, but [[Holy Roman Empire|Holy Roman Emperor]] Maximilian Augustus dissolved the National Assembly and called the election early after the passage of the Secular Bill of Rights, which he opposed. The imperial decree resulted in significant distrust between the Commonwealth government and the Imperium, leading to wide scale protests and a revived separatist movement in 3026.  
!Seats needed to win
 
|-
Opinion polls had consistently shown strong leads for the republicans over Commonwealth and Labour. From a 18-point lead, the republicans lead narrowed to just 8-points on election day. The Republic party returned 25 assemblymen - a gain of 0 seats from their previous standing. However, this is a net loss of 11 seats from the combined Conservative-Liberal seat share achieved in the 3025 election. Similarly, the Republic popular vote share was down over 15-points from the combined Conservative-Liberal vote share in 3026, returning on 36.0% of the popular vote. Despite opinion polls predicting Commonwealth to remain the main opposition party, Labour surged into second place on polling day, winning 14 seats to Commonwealth's 7. This was the best performance for the Labour party since the [[September 3022 Wiltshire general election|September 3022 general election]], leading to Rivers becoming prime minister. The new Covalence party and Commonwealth tied with 7 seats each, though Covalence won the third-place popular vote.
|<big>🟢</big> Republic
|Audrick Hill<ref>Audrick Hill is the Republican prime ministerial candidate. The party's official leader is [[Ray Banes]].</ref>
|25
| 2
|-
|<big>🔴</big> Commonwealth
|Karla Steenbusch
|16
|11
|-
|<big>⚪</big> Covalence
|Basil Lethbridge
|10
|17
|-
|<big>🟣</big> Concord
|Jan Rau
|2
|25
|-
! colspan="4" |Incumbent prime minister
|-
! colspan="2" |Audrick Hill
! colspan="2" |Republican
|-
! colspan="4" |Subsequent prime minister
|-
! colspan="2" |TBD
! colspan="2" |TBD
|}


== Opinion polling ==
== Opinion polling ==
Below is a record of WBC/Atlantic opinion polling from the date the election was called (26 Dec 2025).  
Below is a record of WBC/Atlantic opinion polling from the date the election was called (26 Dec 2025).  
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Date conducted
!Date conducted
!Pollster
!Pollster
!Sample size
!Sample size
!<big>🟢</big>Republic
!<big>🟢</big>Republic
!<big>🔴</big>Labour
!<big>🔴</big> Commonwealth
!<big>🔴</big> Commonwealth
!<big>⚪</big> Covalence
!<big>⚪</big> Covalence
Line 55: Line 25:
|1,250
|1,250
|25%
|25%
! rowspan="11" |N/A
|'''26%'''
|'''26%'''
|20%
|20%
Line 77: Line 48:
|6%
|6%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +3
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +3
|-
|30 December 3025
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,250
|'''31%'''
|27%
|15%
|8%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +4
|-
|31 December 3025
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,250
|'''33%'''
|30%
|13%
|8%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +3
|-
|1 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,500
|'''37%'''
|31%
|15%
|7%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +6
|-
|2 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,000
|'''36%'''
|30%
|17%
|5%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +6
|-
|3 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,500
|'''38%'''
|34%
|20%
|5%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +4
|-
|4 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,000
|40%
|36%
|21%
|3%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +4
|-
|5 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,500
|44%
|36%
|17%
|1%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +8
|-
|6 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,000
|45%
|34%
|18%
|2%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +11
|-
! colspan="9" |Labour party splits from Commonwealth party
|-
|6 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,500
|46%
|11%
|20%
|15%
|1%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +26
|-
|7 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,500
|45%
|13%
|21%
|14%
|1%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +24
|-
|8 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,000
|47%
|14%
|18%
|12%
|2%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +29
|-
|9 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,500
|49%
|15%
|17%
|14%
|3%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +32
|-
|10 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,250
|48%
|15%
|18%
|13%
|2%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +30
|-
|11 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,500
|50%
|14%
|15%
|14%
|1%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +35
|-
|12 January 3026
|WBC/Atlantic
|1,500
|48%
|17%
|16%
|13%
|2%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +31
|-
!Exit poll
!WBC/Atlantic
!6,550
!49%
!15%
!13%
!14%
!9%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +34
|-
! colspan="2" |Election result
!2,688,410
!36%
!28%
!16%
!17%
!2%
|<big>🟢</big> Republic +8
|}
== Results ==
{| class="wikitable"
|+Results of the Wiltshire general election held on 12 January 3026
!Party
!Leader
! colspan="2" |Assemblymen elected
! colspan="3" |Aggregate votes
|-
|<big>🟢</big> Republic
|Audrick Hill
|25
|47.2% of total
|966,413
|36.00%
| -15.70%
|-
|<big>🔴</big> Labour
|Patrick Rivers
|14
|26.4% of total
|762,629
|28.30%
| +28.30%
|-
|<big>⚪</big> Covalence
|Basil Lethbridge
|7
|13.2% of total
|464,208
|17.30%
| +17.30%
|-
|<big>🔴</big> Commonwealth
|Karla Steenbusch
|7
|13.2% of total
|434,606
|16.20%
| -19.20%
|-
|<big>🟣</big>Concord
|Jan Rau
|0
|0% of total
|60,554
|2.30%
| +2.30%
|-
! colspan="3" |Prime Minister before election
! colspan="4" |Prime Minister after election
|-
! colspan="3" |Audrick Hill - Republic
! colspan="4" |Patrick Rivers - Labour
|-
! colspan="3" |[[Fourth Hill Ministry|Fourth Hill ministry]]
! colspan="4" |[[Rivers ministry]]
|}
|}
== Manifestos ==
=== Republic Party ===
<blockquote><code>1.</code> Draft a codified, republican constitution that ensures Wiltshire's lasting independence as a free, democratic, and secular sovereign state. This document will be written by a constitutional convention of citizens, and approved by a popular referendum.</blockquote><blockquote><code>2.</code> Commit to Gavin Thompson's 3026 deficit elimination plan. Ensure any future surplus beyond is returned to Wiltshirian taxpayers in the form of a reduction in the universal standard tax (UST).</blockquote><blockquote><code>3.</code> Commit to a zero tolerance policy on anti-social behaviour and petty crime; clean up Wiltshire's streets.</blockquote><blockquote><code>4.</code> Complete a full review of the repealed agricultural subsidies and explore ways to restore our farmers' best protections.</blockquote><blockquote><code>5.</code> No more snap elections! Commit to increasing term lengths to two-years, ending uncertainty around parliamentary governments.</blockquote>
=== Commonwealth Party ===
<blockquote><code>1.</code> Establish the Public Corporation, in which every Wiltshirian citizen is a stakeholder, to deliver public services in the competitive marketplace. All profits from the Public Corporation shall be invested back into public services, with citizens receiving dividends as any shareholder would.</blockquote><blockquote><code>2.</code> Raise the minimum wage to 14 cm per hour.</blockquote><blockquote><code>3.</code> Commit to Gavin Thompson's 3026 deficit elimination plan.</blockquote><blockquote><code>4.</code> Strive for a lasting peace to ensure no Wiltshirian ever has to die on the battlefield again. This means maintaining membership of international defensive organisations, such as the Holy Roman Empire.</blockquote><blockquote><code>5.</code> Repeal the Secular Rights Bill and replace it with a neutral Humanoid Rights Bill.</blockquote>

Latest revision as of 11:12, 18 January 2026

A general election was held in the Wiltshirian Commonwealth on 12 January 3026, to elect 53 members to the Wiltshire National Assembly. This was the first and only Wiltshirian election ever to be held by imperial decree. The governing Republic party led by prime minister Audrick Hill remained the largest single party in the National Assembly. However, despite dominating opinion polls leading up to the election, republicans failed to secure an overall majority. The election resulted in the formation of a Labour minority government, with a precarious standing in the legislature.

The Republic party was formed in the preceding month as a formal merger of the Conservative and Liberal parties, which had formed a coalition government after the resignation of prime minister Beau Martin. They were led by Audrick Hill, Martin's successor as prime minister. It was defending its position as the largest single party in the legislature against the opposition Commonwealth party, which itself split before the election with the Labour party breaking away, led by Patrick Rivers.

Under the Act of Settlement, an election had not been due until May 3026, but Holy Roman Emperor Maximilian Augustus dissolved the National Assembly and called the election early after the passage of the Secular Bill of Rights, which he opposed. The imperial decree resulted in significant distrust between the Commonwealth government and the Imperium, leading to wide scale protests and a revived separatist movement in 3026.

Opinion polls had consistently shown strong leads for the republicans over Commonwealth and Labour. From a 18-point lead, the republicans lead narrowed to just 8-points on election day. The Republic party returned 25 assemblymen - a gain of 0 seats from their previous standing. However, this is a net loss of 11 seats from the combined Conservative-Liberal seat share achieved in the 3025 election. Similarly, the Republic popular vote share was down over 15-points from the combined Conservative-Liberal vote share in 3026, returning on 36.0% of the popular vote. Despite opinion polls predicting Commonwealth to remain the main opposition party, Labour surged into second place on polling day, winning 14 seats to Commonwealth's 7. This was the best performance for the Labour party since the September 3022 general election, leading to Rivers becoming prime minister. The new Covalence party and Commonwealth tied with 7 seats each, though Covalence won the third-place popular vote.

Opinion polling

Below is a record of WBC/Atlantic opinion polling from the date the election was called (26 Dec 2025).

Date conducted Pollster Sample size 🟢Republic 🔴Labour 🔴 Commonwealth Covalence 🟣Concord Lead
27 December 3025 WBC/Atlantic 1,250 25% N/A 26% 20% 8% 🔴 Commonwealth +1
28 December 3025 WBC/Atlantic 1,250 26% 25% 19% 9% 🟢 Republic +1
29 December 3025 WBC/Atlantic 1,250 30% 27% 16% 6% 🟢 Republic +3
30 December 3025 WBC/Atlantic 1,250 31% 27% 15% 8% 🟢 Republic +4
31 December 3025 WBC/Atlantic 1,250 33% 30% 13% 8% 🟢 Republic +3
1 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,500 37% 31% 15% 7% 🟢 Republic +6
2 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,000 36% 30% 17% 5% 🟢 Republic +6
3 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,500 38% 34% 20% 5% 🟢 Republic +4
4 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,000 40% 36% 21% 3% 🟢 Republic +4
5 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,500 44% 36% 17% 1% 🟢 Republic +8
6 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,000 45% 34% 18% 2% 🟢 Republic +11
Labour party splits from Commonwealth party
6 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,500 46% 11% 20% 15% 1% 🟢 Republic +26
7 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,500 45% 13% 21% 14% 1% 🟢 Republic +24
8 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,000 47% 14% 18% 12% 2% 🟢 Republic +29
9 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,500 49% 15% 17% 14% 3% 🟢 Republic +32
10 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,250 48% 15% 18% 13% 2% 🟢 Republic +30
11 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,500 50% 14% 15% 14% 1% 🟢 Republic +35
12 January 3026 WBC/Atlantic 1,500 48% 17% 16% 13% 2% 🟢 Republic +31
Exit poll WBC/Atlantic 6,550 49% 15% 13% 14% 9% 🟢 Republic +34
Election result 2,688,410 36% 28% 16% 17% 2% 🟢 Republic +8

Results

Results of the Wiltshire general election held on 12 January 3026
Party Leader Assemblymen elected Aggregate votes
🟢 Republic Audrick Hill 25 47.2% of total 966,413 36.00% -15.70%
🔴 Labour Patrick Rivers 14 26.4% of total 762,629 28.30% +28.30%
Covalence Basil Lethbridge 7 13.2% of total 464,208 17.30% +17.30%
🔴 Commonwealth Karla Steenbusch 7 13.2% of total 434,606 16.20% -19.20%
🟣Concord Jan Rau 0 0% of total 60,554 2.30% +2.30%
Prime Minister before election Prime Minister after election
Audrick Hill - Republic Patrick Rivers - Labour
Fourth Hill ministry Rivers ministry

Manifestos

Republic Party

1. Draft a codified, republican constitution that ensures Wiltshire's lasting independence as a free, democratic, and secular sovereign state. This document will be written by a constitutional convention of citizens, and approved by a popular referendum.

2. Commit to Gavin Thompson's 3026 deficit elimination plan. Ensure any future surplus beyond is returned to Wiltshirian taxpayers in the form of a reduction in the universal standard tax (UST).

3. Commit to a zero tolerance policy on anti-social behaviour and petty crime; clean up Wiltshire's streets.

4. Complete a full review of the repealed agricultural subsidies and explore ways to restore our farmers' best protections.

5. No more snap elections! Commit to increasing term lengths to two-years, ending uncertainty around parliamentary governments.

Commonwealth Party

1. Establish the Public Corporation, in which every Wiltshirian citizen is a stakeholder, to deliver public services in the competitive marketplace. All profits from the Public Corporation shall be invested back into public services, with citizens receiving dividends as any shareholder would.

2. Raise the minimum wage to 14 cm per hour.

3. Commit to Gavin Thompson's 3026 deficit elimination plan.

4. Strive for a lasting peace to ensure no Wiltshirian ever has to die on the battlefield again. This means maintaining membership of international defensive organisations, such as the Holy Roman Empire.

5. Repeal the Secular Rights Bill and replace it with a neutral Humanoid Rights Bill.