More actions
Previous election: June 3020
The next Wiltshire general election is scheduled to be held on Friday 18 December 3020, in accordance with the Third Elections Act of 3020 to elect the 24th Wiltshire National Assembly.
The new Assembly will have an increased number of seats, now 90. This will be the third election under the Mixed-Member Proportional System, and the first since independence. In addition, the election will have the largest number of political parties on the national party ballot, with 9 different parties.
On July 28, Mark Edwin's government lost its overall majority. On 8 September, the Socialist Party announced that it would withdraw support for the coalition. Mark Edwin then announced that the election would be held earlier than the scheduled December date.
Background
The result of the last general election and the current situation in the National Assembly is given below:
| Political Party | Elected Members | Current Members |
|---|---|---|
| Socialist Party | 17 | 15 |
| Labour Party | 15 | 15 |
| Government (total) | 32 | 30 |
| Liberal Conservative Party | 21 | 20 |
| KRV (Corporate Party) | 4 | 4 |
| Progress Party | 3 | 3 |
| United Wiltshire | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Alliance Party | 0 | 1 |
| Independent | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 60 | |
| Government majority | 4 | -1 |
Government formation
Following the last general election, the second largest party and the third largest party (the Socialist Party and the Labour Party) formed a coalition government under Prime Minister Mark Edwin. The coalition government prevented the largest party, the Liberal Conservatives, from forming a government.
Leadership elections
As a result of the last election, Prime Minister Audrick Hill resigned as Leader of the Liberal Conservatives. To succeed him, Sonya Inyo was elected to become the new Leader and take up the position of Leader of the Opposition. In addition, one particular candidate for the LibCon leadership, former Chancellor of the Exchequer James Brown, announced that he would form his own political party, United Wiltshire, to contest elections as a "real conservative party".
In addition, Tony Beck resigned as Socialist Leader. The subsequent leadership election saw the International Trade Minister, Scott House, elected the new Leader of the Socialist Party and Deputy Prime Minister of Wiltshire.
Vote of no confidence
In July 3020, the government introduced legislation that would protect the rights of EFR refugees and provide them with a "quick, easy and cheap" pathway to citizenship. The bill was defeated, causing major issues for Edwin's government. The next day, Sonya Inyo's opposition tabled a motion of no confidence. Following the longest continuous debate in Wiltshirian history, the government survived the attempt.
However, due to this, most suspect that an early election will be called as the government's ability to govern continues to diminish.
Electoral system
Since the Third Elections Act, 3020, Wiltshire uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the National Assembly. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the Assembly in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 50 of the 90 seats are filled by the AMs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 40 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the Assembly will add extra seats to cover the overhang.
In order to appear on the national ballot, a political party needs to meet any two of the following criteria;
- Reach 10,000 signatures on a ballot petition
- Reach 3,000 individual donors
- Currently hold seats in the National Assembly
Currently, no parties have reached this threshold as no nomination petitions have been sent out. This usually occurs in the two months before the election. Before the last election, the first political party wasn't nominated until 6 weeks before polling day.
In electorates, individual candidates require a nomination petition of 500 signatures to appear on the electorate ballot.
Boundaries
The electorate boundaries required for the general election have not been set. Districting, according to the Third Elections Act, 3020, has been given to the Wiltshire Election Authority. On 20 August 3020, the WEA released the following electorate boundary map.
.png)
Date of the election
The Second Elections Act, 3020 sets out the last possible date for a general election to be held:
"The responsibility to dissolve the National Assembly, while in the hands of the President, must take place, at the latest, on the third Friday of the sixth month following the first sitting of the current National Assembly."
This means that the last possible date for the general election is Friday 18 December, 3020. This would be the first ever December election in Wiltshirian history. However, in the event of a no confidence vote in the Assembly, or other situations in which the government deems necessary for an early dissolution, the election could take place earlier than this.
Speculation
There is speculation that the government will call for the election to take place earlier than 18 December 3020 due to that date's proximity to Christmas Day. This has also been linked to the date of the 3021 Wiltshire Presidential Election, which will take place in January 3021. Some speculate that the government will seek to amend the law to allow for the election to take place one month later, to coincide with the Presidential Election. Progress AM Sid Velum stated "it wouldn't be reasonable to ask Wiltshirians to vote twice in two months".
The government has not commented on the speculation. However, in mid-August, the government announced that it would delay its housing agenda (a key promise of the Labour Party in every general election since its foundation) until after the next election, suggesting that there will likely be an early poll.
Opinion polling
The following opinion polls have been conducted since the June 3020 Wiltshire Elections.
| Date | Labour | Liberal Conservative | Socialist | United Wiltshire | KRV | Progress | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8/3020 | 36.4% | 33.1% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% |
| 2/8/3020 | 34.9% | 32.5% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 6.9% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| 30/7/3020 | 31.3% | 34.5% | 5.0% | 15.3% | 4.9% | 0.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% |
| 25/7/3020 | 38.2% | 32.1% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 6.1% |
| 19/7/3020 | 40.0% | 30.1% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 9.9% |
| 14/7/3020 | 38.7% | 31.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 0.5% | 4.1% | 7.2% |
| 10/7/3020 | 38.3% | 33.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 5.2% |
| 3/6/3020 | 35.4% | 36.1% | 13.2% | 0 | 7.1% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 0.7% |
| 19/6/3020 | 25.1% | 34.8% | 28.1% | 0 | 5.9% | 4.0% | 0 | 6.7% |
